If that’s the case, the PAC 12 may need to ramp up expansion talks with other schools like San Diego State, SMU, Tulane, etc. There is a chance the BIG 12 says “no” to Utah and/or ASU. Right now, the rumors are that Colorado and Arizona will jump to the BIG 12. There is a chance of survival if only 1 or 2 schools move. This would reduce the PAC 12 to 6 schools and would almost certainly signal the end of the conference. If that happens, Utah and Arizona State should join the BIG 12 as well (assuming they have the chance to leave). Arizona has been heavily rumored to join the BIG 12 as well. Reports are out there that Colorado is nearing a deal to join the BIG 12. Colorado, Utah, Arizona, & Arizona State join the Big 12 With that said, SMU is a private school and would be a cultural unicorn compared to the other 11 schools. SMU comes up as the most likely addition, bringing the Dallas market and the central time zone to the conference. Whether or not they add a 12th school would be up for debate. The most prudent solution is for the Pac 12 to add San Diego State to the conference and do a year-to-year TV deal. With that said, here are my most likely scenarios for the PAC 12 going forward. If the PAC 12 fails, both schools are more than likely Mountain West bound. Of all the schools currently in the Pac 12, these two badly want to keep the PAC 12 alive. If PAC 12 can negotiate a competitive TV deal relative to the Big 12, I could see both schools staying. Knowing that if the Pac 12 cannot offer that, it has to be tempting to jump ship to the Big 12. With that said, these schools would be looking for stability in their future. But football has been weak and Tuscan isn’t a market that conferences are tripping over to get. If not for that, they might be (and still might be) on the outside looking in.Īrizona has a strong, national basketball program, which would be appealing to the Big Ten. The only attractive feature they possess is they are in the Greater Phoenix area. Arizona State (“ASU”) doesn’t fit at all academically, and are historically very poor in the major sports. I find it hard to believe either school will be in the Big Ten some day. If schools start to defect, they need a contingency plan. Yes I think they would love to keep the PAC 12 alive, but they need to be conscious of what the other schools are plotting. The Big Ten might be a pipe dream for Utah/Colorado at this stage, but I don’t think they can completely eliminate this possibility. Now we get into some of the schools that face an uphill climb on their future. While they could be waiting longer than Oregon and Washington for a formal invitation, the thought of a long term Grant of Rights TV deal can’t be attractive to them either. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that both schools (especially Stanford) play Notre Dame on a regular or semi-regular basis. On top of that, they reside in one of the biggest metropolitan areas in the country (San Francisco), and near a major college recruiting ground (southern California). They are more prestigious academically than the remaining six schools, which is a very attractive quality for the Big Ten. Outside of Oregon and Washington, Stanford/Cal have the best odds to join the Big Ten. They have to be thinking in the short-term until the Big Ten comes calling. Ideally, Oregon and Washington should want a year-to-year Television deal, and/or go independent. However, no invitation has been formally made and now the Big Ten is locked into a Grant of Rights deal with Fox, CBS, and NBC through 2029. Oregon and WashingtonĮasily the two schools most connected with joining the Big Ten. With that said, let’s explore the various schools in the PAC 12 and see where this leads. Which makes long term stabilization much more difficult. Different schools have different goals and agendas, as you will see in the content below. For the Pac 12, it is much more complicated. This has re-stabilized the conference and has them looking for more schools to add. The BIG 12 schools were united in growing the conference by adding Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, and Central Florida. This has forced the BIG 12 and PAC 12 to act. Both conferences will be adding their respective schools officially in 2024. The SEC added Texas and Oklahoma from the BIG 12 and the Big Ten added USC and UCLA from the PAC 12. Over the past two years, we saw seismic shifts in the landscape of college sports and conference realignment.
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